Current GHG emission scenario in Bangladesh:  For the NDC update, 2012 has been considered for the base year following the Third National Communication of Bangladesh, detailing a comprehensive national GHG emission inventory for 2012. Energy, IPPU, AFOLU and Waste Sectors were considered for GHG emission inventory preparation. It is stated in the NDC submission that in 2012 total GHG emission accounted for 169.05 million tons CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e). The Energy Sector held the highest contribution to the total GHG emission at 93.09 Mt CO2e or 55.07% of the total emission. Following that, the AFOLU sector contributed 27.35% of the total, Waste contributed 14.26%, and IPPU contributed 3.32%. 

Change in emissions over the years: Bangladesh’s emissions grew 59% from 1990 to 2012 according to WRI CAIT. The average annual change during this time was 2%, with sector-specific annual change as follows: agriculture (1%), energy (7%), land-use change and forestry (0%), waste (2%), and industrial processes (IP) (17%). Agriculture sector emissions grew slightly from around 60 MTCO2e in 1990, whereas IP grew dramatically but from a very low 1990 value. Total GHG emission is found to be increased from 169.05 Mt CO2e in 2012 to 409.4 Mt CO2e in 2030 under the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario with an increase of 2.4 times than base year.

Emission reduction targets: Bangladesh increased its conditional emissions reduction target from 36 MtCO2e to 89.47 MtCO2e by 2030 compared to business as usual. The country also increased its unconditional emissions reduction target from 12 MtCO2e to 27.56 MtCO2e by 2030 compared to business as usual (NDC, 2021)